- International institutions are optimistic about China 's economic outlook.
According to the data released recently by China's National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year China's economic growth reached 6.9%, extending the development trend of stability with progress and stability with improvement. Soon later, a number of international institutions adjusted up their expectations for China’s economic growth in the year. The institutions generally believed that with China's economic rebalancing process advanced steadily, the economic outlook is well supported, and China will continue to play the role of the "stabilizer" for global economy.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released the updated World Economic Outlook, adjusting up the forecasts of China's economic growth for this year and next year by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point to 6.7% and 6.4% respectively.
It is the third time this year that the IMF has raised its expectations for China's economic growth in 2017. The IMF pointed out that the forecasts of China's economic growths were increased as since the first quarter of the year China's economy has been robust and is expected to continue to receive financial support.
JP Morgan and Nomura Securities have increased their figure for China's economic growth from 6.7% to 6.8%. JP Morgan believed that the slowdown of investments in infrastructure and real estate, coupled with the impact of financial deleveraging, is likely to have some impact on China’s economy in the second half of the year, but overall, the stable expansion of the consumption and the service industry and the continuous growth of private investment strongly bolster China’s economic prospect. The institution said that the worry about the economic hard landing and financial risks in China has been much less than a year ago, and China is expected to continue to become the "stabilizer" for the global economy.
Nomura Securities also up-regulated its forecast of the economic growth in the third quarter from 6.6% to 6.8% and maintained its fourth-quarter forecast of 6.6%. Nomura Securities believed that in the second half of the year, the Chinese economy will face the slowdown in the growth of real estate sales, the downward pressure in exports and other uncertainties, the economy may gradually slow down but will not stall.
Standard Chartered Bank and Citibank raised the expectation for this year’s economic growth in China from 6.6% to 6.8%. Standard Chartered Bank said that in the monthly analysis data for China’s economic growth, seven forward-looking economic indicators have recently improved to varying degrees, which means that in the next few months the possibility of a sudden slowdown in China's economy is very slim. Although in the second half of the year, the Chinese economy may face some challenges, but the prospects are optimistic. It is expected that this year China will record the first accelerated economic growth since 2010.
Citibank also increased its forecast for China's economic growth in the third and fourth quarters from 6.5% and 6.4% to 6.7% and 6.6% respectively. Citibank said that under the influence of high base, in the second half of the year the Chinese economy is expected to slow down slightly, but the strong growth will be maintained and it is nearly a “foregone conclusion” to achieve the growth targets.
In addition, the Asian Development Bank also lifted its forecast for China's economic growth this year from 6.5% to 6.7%, with that for next year raised from 6.2% from 6.4%.
According to the Asian Development Outlook released by the Asian Development Bank, the increases in domestic consumption and imports and exports have improved China's growth prospects. On the one hand, the resident incomes rise steadily and the public expenditures continue to expand, supporting the continued improvement in domestic consumption; on the other hand, some commodity prices have picked up slightly from the 2016 low, coupled with the recovery of the external demand, stimulating the rebounds of imports and exports in the first half of the year.